AOTW (Monthly Economic Update) 2014 0912

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Anson Capital- Monthly Investment Update
 
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September 2014

Outlook & Strategy

 

An Update of Performance, Trends, Research & Topics
for Long Term Investment

Market Indicies 
(all values as of  08.29.2014)


 
Stock Indices:                     
Dow Jones  
17,098

S&P 500
2,003

Nasdaq 
4,580

    
Bond Sector Yields:         
               
2 Yr Treasury  
0.48%

10 Yr Treasury  
2.34%

10 Yr Municipal  
2.17%

High Yield  
5.22%

              
YTD Market Returns:   
      
         
Dow Jones          
3.15%

S&P 500                
 8.39%    

Nasdaq                     
9.67%

MSCI-EAFE          
.47%

MSCI-Europe       
-.35%

MSCI-Pacific        
1.92%

MSCI-Emg Mkt     
8.50% 

US Agg Bond        
4.81%

US Corp Bond       
7.14%

US Gov’t Bond      
5.07%
               


Commodity Prices:           
                
Gold      
1,287

Silver    
19.40

Oil (WTI)
94.55
               


Currencies:          
          
Dollar / Euro      
1.31

Dollar / Pound   
1.65

Yen / Dollar    
103.76

Dollar / Canadian  
.92

 

Macro Overview

Retaliatory efforts by Russia’s President Putin in response to sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union have created hurdles for many multi-national companies.
 
A concern has emerged from these sanctions of the possibility that dealing in U.S. dollars may impede trade relations between countries that want nothing to do with penalizing Russia. Because of rules set by the U.S., certain international companies and banks are starting to become restricted as to who they do business with.
 
Putin’s response to the sanctions now include the banning of agricultural imports from the U.S. and Europe, including chicken, fruit, vegetables, butter, milk, and cheese.
 
Unlike their international counterparts, U.S. equity markets have been somewhat immune from global issues, as the Dow Jones Average maintained its lofty levels and the S&P 500 climbed to all time highs in late August. The United States has been a pillar of economic stability in the midst of global uncertainty, with the dollar and consumer confidence strengthening over the past few months.

  Economic data released in August bolstered the case for stocks tied to the U.S. economy, as industrial production rose more than expected and the number of job openings was at the highest level since 2001.U.S. companies doing business domestically have become a beacon for global assets due to limited international exposure.
 
Gross domestic product (GDP), the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a 4.2 percent annualized rate, up from an initial estimate of 4 percent, the Commerce Department reported. Better than expected housing data also helped elevate stocks as an improving housing market reflects a healthier economy.
 
More stringent regulations surrounding the disclosure of overseas assets that became effective on July 1st under the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) prompted 576 Americans of the estimated 6 million living overseas to renounce their U.S. citizenship and passports.
 
Central bankers met in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the annual Economic Symposium Conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The conference includes prominent central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world. This year’s conference focused on subdued international growth and how best to stimulate both the labor and financial markets.


Equity Overview

August was another record setting month for the stock market as the S&P 500 closed above 2000 for the first time and finished the month at 2003.37. This represents a 3.8% increase for the month and a 8.4% increase for the year compared to a 3.1% increase for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a 9.7% increase for the tech heavy Nasdaq composite. This was the best August gain for the S&P 500 in 14 years. It took 16 years for the S&P to gain 1000 points after breaking through the 1000 level in February 1998.
 
Despite mixed economic signals domestically and around the world during the month, it appears the consumer confidence reading in the U.S. during August has had the largest influence on purchasers of equities. The overall consumer confidence index rose to 92.4 from a revised 90.3 in July and was the highest level since October 2007. 

Economists had expected the index to pull back to 88.5 from July levels. This reading implies that consumers are increasingly positive about the short-term outlook for the economy and the job market.

Global geopolitical tensions remained high during August, yet none of these conflicts escalated to the point where they appear to have negatively affected the U.S. equity markets.

 
Industry sectors that drove the higher gains in August include certain basic material stocks such as those companies that mine and process gold, aluminum, and copper. Healthcare stocks performed strongly as well as hospital stocks seem to be gaining patients from the increased health insurance coverage as a result of the Affordable Care Act. A notable weak sector was in the oil services space as weak oil and natural gas prices in recent months brought uncertainty regarding growth rates in the industry.
 

International Overview

July was a volatile month for many of the world’s stock markets. The Malaysian Airlines incident in Ukraine ignited a flurry of concern and caution in the markets. Much finger pointing and blame ensued and at month end, the European Union (EU) placed sanctions on broad sectors of the Russian economy, which followed U.S. sanctions earlier in the year and marked a significant escalation in attempts to punish Russia for fueling the conflict in Ukraine. The Russians stock market as measured by the Moscow Exchange Index (MICEX) tumbled 7.0% in July.
 
In European fixed income news, government bond yields have fallen to the lowest level in modern history. During the month, the yield on German 10-year bonds fell to a record low of 1.11%,  French yields dropped to 1.5%, and the Spanish 10-year bond fell to 2.46%, which is the lowest level since the French revolution in 1789.  

These yields are far below rates hit during the 1930’s or even during the deflationary periods of the 1800’s.

 European bonds have been somewhat of a safe haven for assets exiting the Russian financial markets, driving rates to historic low levels.

 
In Middle Eastern news, the Islamic militant organization ISIS continued its march through Syria and Iraq and now occupies or controls wide areas of land in both countries. The U.S. has sent military advisors to Iraq but claims no major military presence will be enacted. The violence and turmoil in those regions have not had a negative affect on global energy prices as oil prices (WTI) fell from $105.02 at the end of June to $97.97. 

Fixed Income Overview

During August bond market yields continued its year-to-date downward trend with the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreasing from 2.56% to 2.34%. At the opposite end of the yield curve, the 2-year Treasury note had its largest yield gain since March, ending August at 0.48%.
 
Foreign buying of U.S. treasury securities, which have been pushing down yields, continues to be the story. The collapse in the German “bund” yield to 0.88% and the downturn in other European bond yields has turned U.S. bonds into higher yielding alternatives on a relative basis.
 
The annual Fed retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, failed to bring any conclusive actions, as the dove versus hawk debate continued. Fed Chair Janet Yellen pointed out the risk of higher inflation and raising rates too early, yet continued to receive dissent from other regional Fed presidents who believe it is time to raise the Fed Funds rate above near zero levels. Fed minutes show that the Federal Reserve continues to be very data sensitive as employment and economic numbers tend to create varying opinions among Fed members.

Corporate bond issuance set another record with year-to-date issues at approximately $1 trillion as of the end of August, one of the fastest paces on record.  Analysts say companies are taking advantage of still record low interest rates to raise money to invest in much needed capital projects as the U.S. economy improves. Another use for the borrowed money has been corporate finance “maneuvers,” which include paying off expensive debt, buying back a company’s own shares, paying out larger dividends, and engaging in merger and acquisition activity.

 
A reduction in banks’ inventory of bonds due to federal regulations mandated following the financial crisis of 2008 has made markets more susceptible to sharper price swings because of reduced dealers proving liquidity. This means that there are fewer dealers to transact buys and sales than there were prior to 2008, thus possibly reducing liquidity in certain fixed income sectors.
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