How Cheap Oil Complicates Investing

While Retail Stocks Benefit, Others Take It on the Chin

By GREGORY ZUCKERMAN

For most Americans, this year’s sudden collapse of oil prices appears to be unqualified good news. Oil prices have dropped 45% since June, amid surging output from U.S. shale fields, strong Saudi Arabian production and weak demand from Asia and elsewhere. They dropped 12.2% just last week, closing Friday at $57.81 a barrel. Analysts at Credit Suisse and other banks say it will take years before oil prices return to $100-a-barrel levels.

For drivers and those who rely on oil to heat their homes, falling crude prices act as an unexpected bonus or tax refund.

But for investors? It gets a bit more complicated. Sure, energy stocks are taking it on the chin, as are companies that seem far removed from the oil patch—among them debt-laden North Dakota oil drillers, energy-service companies and junk bonds.

A Boost for Retailers

But there are also potential winners, such as retail stocks. Last week, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales grew 0.7% in November, the sharpest rise in eight months. With gas prices below $2.50 a gallon in many parts of the country and oil continuing to weaken, that growth could continue. An improving employment outlook also helps.

Not all retail sectors are benefiting. While automobiles and parts sales are strong, as are clothing and accessories, food and beverage, along with sporting goods, don’t seem to be getting much of an uptick.

Some analysts say the best bets are lower-end retailers like Wal-Mart Stores, Costco Wholesale and Big Lots. Falling gas prices provide big benefits to customers of these stores, analyst say, because they give low-wage earners more to spend on household goods and other items. Last month, Wal-Mart reported its first quarterly sales increase since 2012, citing falling gasoline prices as a factor. Big Lots, under new management since last year, also could benefit.

Falling fuel prices could hurt Costco, one of the country’s largest fuel retailers. But analysts predict higher earnings for the company, partly because cheaper driving makes it more appealing to make longer shopping trips to warehouse stores such as Costco and Wal-Mart.

Airline profits will also rise, analysts say. Fuel represents about half of airline costs, and few are expected to pass the savings to customers through lower fares. American Airlines shares are up 25% in the past six months, less than  Delta Airline’s 35% jump, and some say American is a more reasonable value.

But a growing number of analysts warn investors to beware of the downside to falling oil prices. The energy industry, of course, will remain under pressure as long as prices drop. Some are adjusting their businesses. Last week, British oil giant BP said it would cut jobs and take $1 billion in restructuring charges, and others are trimmings spending plans.

But some investors, such as Doug Kass, author of “Doug Kass on the Market: A Life on The Street,” warn that contagion from energy weakness can be unpredictable. “Most are underestimating the negative consequences of oil’s spill,” says Mr. Kass, who worries about energy loans from banks.

Banks exposed to energy include Oklahoma lender BOK Financial Corp. (BOKF), which has extended 19% of its loans, by value, to energy-related companies, according to BMO Capital Markets. Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) has extended 14%,Zion Bancorp (ZION) 8% and Prosperity Bancshares (PB) 7%. Loan demand for these banks could drop, some investors say.

Already, the junk-bond market is being crippled because 14% of those bonds are energy-related. “If you participate in high yield through a fund or an ETF, you have substantial exposure to energy that probably won’t be fully offset by the benefits to other industries of lower oil prices,” says Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, adding that the market anticipates an “oil-patch recession in 2016.”

“You can’t sell just the energy portion of a high-yield mutual fund, so you have to sell the whole thing…and that puts downward pressure on the high-yield market as a whole,” he says.

“Many think the fall in oil is good for the economy as gas prices fall and the consumer benefits,” says Douglas Rothschild, president of PT Asset Management. “But the speed of the fall is bad because many companies can’t adjust quickly enough…leading to layoffs, borrower defaults and trouble for the lenders.”

Energy companies often hedge at least some of their oil production at higher prices and don’t face repayment of the principal on their junk bonds for several years, suggesting there won’t be an immediate wave of bankruptcies.

Nonetheless, tumbling oil prices have “created the largest new supply of distressed debt in a number of years…Almost overnight there’s been more than 100 stressed and distressed credits,” says Andrew Herenstein, co-founder of Monarch Alternative Capital, among the largest investors in distressed debt.

Oh Canada

“The benefits of lower oil prices will not be evenly distributed, and it is important to think about countries that stand to benefit more because of higher consumption and/or less economic dependence on oil exports,” according to a report by bond powerhouse Pimco. “The losers are oil exporters, including Norway, for whom commodity exports are some 20% of GDP, and Russia. On the other hand Korea, China, Japan, India and Thailand are net oil importers and will benefit from the sharply lower prices.”

The Canadian economy could get hurt if oil remains weak, because of the country’s important energy industry. That’s why newsletter writer Jared Dillian predicts weakness for  Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD).

Blaze Tankersley, chief market strategist at BayCrest Partners, says investors should be wary of manufacturer Dover (DOV), which has seen growth in its energy segment, and General Electric (GE), which also sells to energy companies.

Still, energy prices are just one factor in an investment outlook and shouldn’t be the sole reason to adjust a portfolio. Falling prices can help consumers, for example, but if the housing market’s recent weakness continues it could offset some of the benefits.

“The energy sector’s effect on either market trend or earnings is not as significant as many might perceive,” says Tobias Levkovitch, chief U.S. equity strategist at CitiGroup. “While many investors have been raising the issue of the plunge in oil prices and its potential influence on earnings, capital spending, employment trends, equity markets and consumer activity, reviewing the data suggests that it is not the end all.”